The death of the Franco-German FCAS program last week could boost the competing GCAP, effectively transforming the resulting sixth-gen fighter jet into a second Eurofighter.

It has been nearly 18 months since Boeing was first awarded the contract to produce the F-47, the manned sixth-generation fighter that is the centerpiece of the United States Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Current plans call for the F-47 to enter service in the mid-to-late 2030s.

The F-47 isn’t the only next-generation manned or optionally-manned fighter now in development, however. China is actively working on its J-36 sixth-gen fighter, with a prototype being spotted multiple times to date according to posts on social media—which, if true, would put the Chinese aircraft well ahead of the American one’s schedule.

Europe Is Nearing a Contract for Its GCAP Fighter

A third challenger is also entering the ring. Days after the death of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project between Germany, France, and Spain, the British-Italian-Japanese Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) sixth-gen fighter could be close to reaching the contracting stage. The joint program, which grew out of the British-led Tempest program, has made significant progress according to sources, even as there have been cost concerns among the key partner members. The state of the program is expected to be discussed during the upcoming bilateral talks between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this coming weekend in London.

“During the meeting, the Prime Ministers are expected to confirm their shared commitment to the Global Combat Air Programme, and discuss the launch of the next phase of the international programme, including through the international contract that will be signed by the end of the month,” the UK Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement.

The announcement that a contract could be signed in the coming weeks is noteworthy, as Defense Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns each resigned from their posts last week. The departures were linked to the lack of funding for the UK’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which both men said would endanger UK security.

Officials in Japan and Italy have each expressed concerns that the UK has failed to secure the funding for GCAP, which seeks to develop a fighter to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon currently operated by both the Royal Air Force and Italian Air Force. Once it enters service, the GCAP will also replace the Mitsubishi F-2 now flown by Japan.

Tokyo has maintained that it will need a more capable fighter jet to deter regional adversaries—notably China, which is rapidly expanding its military capabilities, including through the development of fifth- and sixth-generation combat aircraft such as the aforementioned J-36.

With FCAS Gone, Will Germany Join the GCAP?

The news that the GCAP could advance forward follows the dissolution of the competing FCAS program, after France’s Dassault Aviation and Germany’s Airbus were unable to reach an agreement on the workload sharing and intellectual property rights.

That led to speculation that Germany might seek to join the GCAP—effectively transforming the GCAP into a second Eurofighter program, as the GCAP would then include all the same nations (the UK, Italy, Germany and Spain) that led the efforts to develop the Typhoon. At that time, France struck out on its own, building the separate Dassault Rafale to its own specifications; it is likely to do the same now.

Berlin could bring additional money to an already costly program, but some issues of workload sharing will need to be addressed.

Other nations, including NATO member Poland and Saudi Arabia, have also expressed interest in taking on a junior partner role in the GCAP. It is not clear how far the program can be expanded; Tokyo in particular has shown hesitation in dividing the work between too many countries. Still, it appears to be acknowledging that as additional countries sign on, that could be enough to get the sixth-generation fighter that is the centerpiece system of systems in the air sooner, helping to keep up with Washington and Beijing.

And the United States in particular ought to have another concern: each new partner will help the GCAP, but will also mean one fewer buyer for the F-47!

About the Author: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu has contributed to dozens of newspapers, magazines and websites over a 30-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. He is based in Michigan. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

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